Apparat - A magazine about a new society. The future of computer technology: an overview of current trends
The field of information technology develops in two predominantly independent cycles: product and financial. Recently, there has been a lot of controversy about where we are in the financial cycle; a lot of attention is paid to financial markets, which sometimes behave unpredictably and fluctuate greatly. On the other hand, product cycles receive relatively little attention, even though they are driving information technology forward. But by analyzing the experience of the past, one can try to understand the current product cycle and predict the future development of technologies.
The development of product cycles in the field of high technology occurs through the interaction of platforms and applications: new platforms allow the creation of new applications, which, in turn, add value to these platforms, thus closing the positive feedback loop.
Small product cycles are repeated constantly, but historically it has developed so that once every 10-15 years another large cycle begins - an era that completely changes the face of IT.
Financial and product cycles are largely independent of each other.
Once upon a time, the rise of computers prompted entrepreneurs to create the first word processors, spreadsheets, and many other PC applications. With the advent of the Internet, the world saw search engines, online commerce, email, social media, SaaS business applications, and many other services. Smartphones have given impetus to the development of mobile social networks and instant messengers, as well as the emergence of new types of services such as carpooling. We live in the midst of the mobile era, and it looks like there are still many interesting innovations ahead of us.
Each epoch can be roughly divided into 2 phases: 1) the formation phase - when the platform first appears on the market, but is expensive, crude and / or difficult to use; 2) an active phase - when a new product solves the mentioned disadvantages of the platform, thereby starting a period of its rapid development.
The Apple II computer was released in 1977 and the Altair 8800 in 1975, but the active phase of the PC era began with the release of the IBM PC in 1981.
PC sales per year (thousand)
The Internet's formation phase began in the 1980s and early 1990s, when it was essentially a text-based data exchange tool used by academics and government. The release of the first browser, NCSA Mosaic, in 1993 marked the beginning of a phase of intensive Internet development that has not ended to this day.
Number of Internet users around the world
In the 90s, mobile phones already existed, and the first smartphones appeared at the dawn of the 2000s, but the widespread production of smartphones began in 2007-2008 with the release of the first iPhone, and then with the advent of the Android platform. Since then, the number of smartphone users has skyrocketed, and now their number has already reached about two billion. And by 2020, 80% of the world's population will have smartphones.
Worldwide smartphone sales (million)
If the duration of each cycle is indeed 10–15 years, then in just a few years the active phase of a new computer age will begin. It turns out that the new technology is already in the formation phase. Today, there are several major trends in hardware and software that allow us to shed some light on the next era. In this article, I want to discuss these trends and put forward some guesses about what our future might look like.
Hardware: compact, cheap and versatile
In the mainframe era, only large organizations could afford a computer. Mini computers were available to smaller organizations, while computers were available for homes and offices.
Computers are shrinking at a constant rate
We are now on the cusp of a new era in which processors and sensors are becoming so cheap and compact that computers will soon outnumber humans.
This is facilitated by two factors. First, the steady progress in semiconductor manufacturing over the past 50 years (Moore's Law). Second, what Chris Anderson calls "peace dividends from the smartphone war": the dizzying success of smartphones has spurred large investments in processor and sensor development. Take a peek inside a modern quadcopter, virtual reality goggles or any IoT device - what will you see? That's right - mostly smartphone components.
But in the modern era of semiconductors, all the attention has shifted from individual processors to entire assemblies of specialized microcircuits known as single-chip systems.
Computer prices are steadily declining
A common single-chip system combines an energy-efficient ARM processor and a special graphics processor, as well as devices for information exchange, power management, video signal processing, and so on.
Raspberry Pi Zero: $ 5 Linux computer with a 1 GHz processor
This innovative architecture has reduced the minimum cost of basic computing systems from $ 100 to $ 10 per unit. A great example is the Raspberry Pi Zero, the first $ 5 Linux computer to run at 1 GHz. For the same money, you can purchase a Wi-Fi microcontroller that supports one of the Python versions. Soon these microprocessors will cost less than a dollar, and we can easily embed them almost everywhere.
But more significant advances are taking place in the world of high quality microprocessors today. GPUs deserve special attention, the best of which are made by NVIDIA. GPUs are useful not only for processing graphics, but also when working with machine learning algorithms, as well as with virtual and augmented reality devices. However, NVIDIA officials are promising more significant GPU performance improvements in the near future.
The trump card of the entire field of information technology is still quantum computers, which so far exist mainly in laboratories. But it is worth making them commercially attractive, and this will lead to tremendous growth in productivity, primarily in the field of biology and artificial intelligence.
Google Quantum Computer
Software: the golden age of artificial intelligence
There are many interesting things going on in the software world today. Distributed systems are a good example. Their appearance is due to the manifold increase in the number of devices in recent years, which has caused the need to parallelize tasks on several machines, establish data exchange between devices and coordinate their work. Such technologies of distributed systems as Hadoop or Spark, designed to work with large amounts of data, deserve special attention. It is also worth mentioning the blockchain technology, which ensures the security of data and resources, and was first implemented in the Bitcoin cryptocurrency.But perhaps the most exciting discoveries today are in the field of artificial intelligence (AI), which has a long history of ups and downs. Alan Turing himself also predicted that by 2000, machines will be able to imitate people. While this prediction has yet to materialize, there is good reason to believe that AI is finally entering a golden age.
“Machine learning is a key, revolutionary way of rethinking everything we do,” - Google CEO Sundar Pichai.
The biggest buzz in AI has centered around so-called deep learning, a technique that was widely publicized in a well-known Google project launched in 2012. The project involved a high-performance computer network to learn how to recognize cats in YouTube videos. The deep learning method is based on artificial neural networks - a technology that originated in the 40s of the last century. Recently, this technology has become relevant again due to many factors: the emergence of new algorithms, the reduction in the cost of parallel computing and the widespread adoption of large datasets.
The percentage of errors in the ImageNet competition (the red line corresponds to the performance of a person)
Hopefully, deep learning isn't just another buzzword in Silicon Valley. However, the interest in this teaching method is supported by impressive theoretical and practical results. For example, before the introduction of deep learning, the acceptable error rate for the winners of ImageNet, the famous machine vision competition, was 20-30%. But after its application, the accuracy of the algorithms grew steadily, and already in 2015, the performance of machines surpassed that of a person.
And here's a small start-up app for classifying items in real time:
Appendix Teradeep identifies items in real time
Hmm, but somewhere I've already seen this:
A fragment from the movie Terminator 2: Judgment Day (1991)
One of the first deep learning apps released by a large company was the amazingly smart image search app Google Photos:
Search by photos (no metadata) with the keyword "big ben"
Soon we will see a significant increase in AI performance in all areas of software and hardware: voice assistants, search engines, chat bots, 3D scanners, language translators, cars, drones, diagnostic imaging systems and much, much more.
“It's easy to predict the next 10,000 startups: take X and add artificial intelligence.” - Kevin Kelly
Startups building products with an emphasis on AI need to stay extremely focused on certain applications in order to compete with large companies for which AI is the highest priority. AI systems become more efficient as the amount of data collected for them increases. It turns out to be something like a flywheel, constantly spinning due to the so-called data network effect (more users → more data → better products → more users). For example, the team at map service Wase used the data network effect to improve the quality of the maps they provide better than their more venerable competitors. Anyone looking to leverage AI for their startup should follow a similar strategy.
Software + hardware: new computers
Now at the stage of formation there are a number of promising platforms, which may soon move to the development stage, since they combine the latest developments from the areas of software and hardware. While these platforms may look different or come in different configurations, they do have one thing in common: they use the latest advanced smart virtualization capabilities. Let's take a look at some of these platforms:Cars. Big tech companies like Google, Apple, Uber and Tesla are investing heavily in autonomous or self-driving cars. Tesla Model S semi-autonomous cars are already on the market and updated and more advanced models are expected to be released soon. A fully autonomous vehicle will take some time, but there is reason to believe that there will be no more than five years to wait. In fact, there are already developments in fully autonomous vehicles that drive as well as human-driven. However, due to many cultural and regulatory aspects, such vehicles must run much better than human-driven vehicles in order to be eligible for widespread use.
An unmanned vehicle makes a diagram of its environment
Undoubtedly, the volume of investments in self-driving cars will only grow. In addition to information technology companies, major car manufacturers have also begun to think about autonomy. There are many more interesting start-up products awaiting us. Deep learning software has become so powerful that today a single developer can make a semi-autonomous vehicle.
Homemade unmanned vehicle
Drones. Modern drones are equipped with the latest technology (mainly smartphone components and mechanical parts), but have relatively simple software. Improved models equipped with computer vision and other types of AI will soon appear, making them safer, easier to operate and more useful. Photo and video filming from drones will be popular not only among amateurs, but, more importantly, it will also find commercial applications. In addition, there are many dangerous types of work, including high-altitude ones, for which it would be much safer to use drones.
Completely autonomous drone flight
Internet of Things. The most important benefits of IoT devices are energy efficiency, security, and convenience. Nest and Dropcam are good examples of the first two characteristics. In terms of convenience, Amazon's Echo is worth a look.
Most people think the Echo is just another marketing gimmick, but after using it at least once, they are surprised at how convenient this device is. It brilliantly demonstrates the effectiveness of voice control as the foundation of the user interface. Of course, we will not soon see robots with universal intelligence capable of maintaining a full-fledged conversation. But, as Echo shows, computers are already capable of handling more or less complex voice commands. As deep learning improves, computers will learn to understand language better.
3 main advantages: energy efficiency, safety, convenience
IoT devices will also find application in the business segment. For example, devices with sensors and network connectivity are widely used to monitor industrial equipment.
Wearable technology. The functionality of wearable computers today varies depending on a number of factors: battery capacity, communications and data processing. The most successful devices usually have a very narrow field of application: for example, fitness tracking. As hardware components improve, wearable devices will, like smartphones, expand their functionality, thereby opening up the possibilities for new applications. As with the Internet of Things, voice is expected to become the primary user interface for controlling wearable devices.
Miniature headphone with artificial intelligence, a fragment from the movie "She"
Virtual reality. 2016 will be a very exciting year for VR experiences, with the release of the Oculus Rift and HTC Vive (and possibly PlayStation VR) VR headsets, which means that wearable and immersive VR systems will finally go mainstream. VR device designers will have to work hard to prevent users from developing the so-called "sinister valley" effect, in which the excessive believability of a robot or other artificial object dislikes human observers.
Building high-quality VR systems requires high-quality screens (high resolution, high refresh rate, and low inertia), powerful graphics cards, and the ability to track the exact position of the user (previous generations of VR systems could only track the user's head rotation). This year, with new devices, users will be able to experience the full experience of being there for the first time.
Create a 3D virtual world with VR glasses
Augmented reality. Most likely, AR will develop only after VR, because full use of augmented reality will require all the possibilities of virtual, along with additional new technologies. For example, to fully combine real and virtual objects in one interactive scene, AR will need advanced low-latency machine vision technologies.
Augmented Reality Device, fragment from the movie "Kingsman: The Secret Service"
But, most likely, the era of augmented reality will come faster than you think. This demo was shot directly through the Magic Leap AR device:
Magic Leap demo: virtual character in a real environment
This demo was filmed directly through the Magic Leap on October 14, 2015. No special effects or compositing were used in its creation.
What's next?
Perhaps the cycles of 10-15 years will not repeat again, and the mobile era will be the last of them. Or maybe the next era will be shorter, or only one subspecies of the technologies discussed above will become really important later.I prefer to think that we are now at the intersection of several eras. The "peace dividends from the smartphone war" have been the rapid emergence of new devices and software developments, especially artificial intelligence that can make these devices even smarter and more useful.
Some researchers note that most of the new devices are still in "puberty": they may be imperfect and somewhat ridiculous, and all because they have not yet entered the development phase. As with personal computers in the 70s, the Internet in the 80s and smartphones in the early 2000s, we do not see the complete picture, but only fragments of what current technologies will become. One way or another, the future is near: markets fluctuate, fashion comes and goes, but progress, as before, is confidently moving forward.
Technologies
The world is improving every day, inventing and discovering something new, and without these achievements, we would not have made it that far.
Scientists, researchers, developers and designers from all over the world are trying to implement what will make our life easier and more interesting.
Here are some technologies the future that take our lives to a completely different level.
New technologies of the future
1. Biocoolers
A Russian designer has proposed the concept of a refrigerator called the "Bio Robot Refrigerator", which chills food using biopolymer gel... It has no shelves, compartments or doors - you just stick food into the gel.
The idea was proposed by Yuri Dmitriev for the competition Electrolux Design Lab. The refrigerator uses only 8 percent of the home's energy for the control panel and does not need any energy to actually cool it down.
Refrigerator biopolymer gel uses light generated at a cold temperature to preserve food. The gel itself is odorless and non-sticky, and the refrigerator can be wall or ceiling mounted.
2.Super-fast 5G Internet from drones with solar panels
Google is working on solar-powered drones that serve up ultrafast internet in a project called Project skybender... In theory drones will provide Internet services 40 times faster than 4G networks, allowing you to transfer gigabytes of data per second.
The project envisages the use of millimeter waves to provide the service, as the existing spectrum for the transmission of mobile communications is too full.
However, these waves have a shorter range than the 4G mobile signal. Google is working on this problem, and if all the technical problems can be solved, the Internet of unprecedented speed may soon appear.
3.5D drives for eternal storage of terabytes of data
Researchers have created a 5D disc that records data in 5 dimensions that persist for billions of years. He can store 360 terabytes of data and can withstand temperatures up to 1000 degrees.
The files on the disk are made of three layers of nanodots. The five dimensions of the disc relate to the size and orientation of the points, and their position within the three dimensions. When light passes through the disc, the dots change the polarization of the light, which is read by the microscope and polarizer.
The Southampton team that is developing the disc was able to burn the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, Newtonian Optics, Magna Carta and the Bible to the disc. In a few years, such a disk will no longer be an experiment, but will become the norm for data storage.
4. Injection of oxygen particles
Scientists at Boston Children's Hospital have developed oxygenated microparticles that can be injected into the bloodstream allowing you to live even if you cannot breathe.
Microparticles consist of a single layer of lipid capsules that surround a small oxygen bubble. The 2-4 micrometer capsules are suspended in a liquid that controls their size, as larger bubbles can be dangerous.
When injected, the capsules impinge on red blood cells and transfer oxygen. Thanks to this method, 70 percent of the oxygen was introduced into the blood.
5. Underwater transport tunnels
Norway plans to build the world's first underwater floating bridges at a depth of 30 meters under water with large pipes wide enough for two lanes.
Given the difficulties of moving around the terrain, Norway decided to work on the creation of underwater bridges. The project, which has already spent $ 25 billion, is expected to be completed in 2035.
There are other factors to consider, such as the effects of wind, waves and strong currents on the bridge.
6. Bioluminescent trees
The development team decided to create bioluminescent trees using an enzyme found in some jellyfish and fireflies.
These trees will be able to illuminate the streets and help passersby see better at night. A small version of the project has already been developed in the form of a plant glowing in the dark. The next step will be the trees that illuminate the streets.
7. Roll-up TVs
LG has developed a prototype a TV that can be rolled up like a roll of paper.
The TV uses polymer-based LED technology to reduce the thickness of the screen.
Besides LG, other major electronics manufacturers such as Samsung, Sony and Mitsubishi are working to make screens more flexible and portable.
Technological developments in the future
8. Bionic lens for lightRxhuman vision
Canadian doctor is going to conduct clinical testing "bionic lenses" that improve 100% vision by 3 times with an 8 minute painless surgery.
The new lens will be available by 2017, improving the natural lens of the eye. During the operation, a syringe inserts a lens with saline into the eye, and after 10 seconds the folded lens is straightened and positioned over the natural lens, completely correcting vision.
9. Spray clothes
Spanish designer Manel Torres invented the world's first spray garment. You can apply the spray to any part of the body and then take it off, rinse it off and wear it again.
The spray is made from special fibers mixed with polymers that give the fabrics elasticity and durability. This technology will allow designers to create unique garments with original designs.
10. Portraits derived from DNA
Student Heather Duy-Hagborg creates 3D portraits from DNA found on cigarette butts and chewing gum outside.
She enters the DNA sequences into a computer program that creates a human image from a sample. Usually in this process a 25-year-old version of the person is handed out. The model is then printed in full size 3D portraits.
11. Shopping in virtual reality
One of these stores was opened at a train station in South Korea, where you can make an order by taking a photo of the barcode and your purchases will be delivered home.
Chain stores Homeplus installed six door-screens with life-size images of shelves with goods that you would buy in a supermarket. Each item has a barcode underneath that can be scanned and sent using the app.
You can place an order at the station on your way to work and the goods will be delivered to your home in the evening.
12. Unmanned vehicles
Expected that by 2020 there will be about 10 million self-driving cars, which will reduce the number of deaths by 2,500 between 2014 and 2030.
Many car manufacturers have already started implementing some automatic driving features in their vehicles.
There are also many companies trying to develop technologies for self-driving cars, such as Google, which announced a prototype self-driving car. A fully autonomous vehicle is expected by 2019.
13. The city under the dome
Construction in progress in Dubai a shopping center called "Mall of the World" covered with a retractable dome which controls the climate inside and provides air conditioning.
The complex will occupy an area of 4.46 km2 and will include a large beauty and health center, a cultural and entertainment area, hotels with 20 thousand rooms and much more. It will be the largest shopping mall with an indoor theme park.
14. Artificial leaves that convert carbon dioxide and sunlight into fuel
Scientists have developed new solar cells that convert carbon dioxide in the atmosphere into fuel using the sun.
While there have been many attempts to convert carbon dioxide into something useful, a real method has been developed for the first time. Unlike other technologies that require precious metals such as silver, this method uses a tungsten-based material that is 20 times cheaper and 1,000 times faster.
These solar cells use carbon dioxide from the atmosphere to produce syngas, a mixture of hydrogen gas and carbon monoxide that can be directly burned or converted to hydrocarbon fuels.
Technologies of the near future
15. Plasma force field that protects cars from accidents and collisions
Boeing has patented a method to create a plasma field by rapidly heating air to quickly absorb shock waves.
The force field can be generated using lasers or microwave radiation. The created plasma is air heated to a higher temperature than the surrounding air, with a different density and composition. The company believes it will be able to reflect and absorb the energy generated by the explosion, protecting those inside the field.
If the technology can be implemented, it will be a revolutionary development in the military field.
16. Floating cities
A floating ecopolis, named Lilypad, was proposed by architect Vincent Callebaut for future climate refugees as a lasting solution to sea level rise. The city can accommodate 50,000 people using renewable energy sources.
AMD or Intel? The battle in the PC processor market is escalating: after years of failure, AMD is bringing the Zen processor to market. Mobile chips and video cards will also become faster.
1 Zen Master by AMD
With the release of the new Zen processor, AMD has declared war on Intel, and fans of powerful PCs will again have a choice between two equivalent brands of chips in the spring. The Zen architecture combines four cores with shared L3 cache and 14nm transistors. At the same time, hyper-threading is implemented in each AMD core, which until now has been the prerogative of Intel.
2 Intel Kaby Lake @ 4.5 GHz
There are already new laptops, including the Medion Akoya S3409, powered by Intel's new generation of Kaby Lake processors. In 2017, you can expect PC chips with increased clock speeds up to 4.5 GHz. Probably, this will be facilitated by the 14-nanometer semiconductor manufacturing process.
3 Artemis for smartphones
ARM plans to release the Artemis processor in 2017. Manufactured with a 10nm process technology, it promises smartphones up to 30% longer battery life and more processing power. Presumably, this processor will be used in the iPhone 7s.
4 AMD will return to the market for top-end graphics cards
Very little is officially known about the next generation of Vega video chips from AMD. But thanks to numerous leaks, it becomes clear that we are talking about top-end solutions, significantly superior to Polaris (Radeon RX 470 / RX 480) - and all this with a relatively modest increase in power consumption.
> Fastest graphics card in the second half of 2017, a two-chip board based on Vega with a performance of about 23 teraflops should appear, which will be able to perform twice as many calculations per unit of time as the current leader NVIDIA Titan X. Most likely, it will use the second generation of High Bandwidth Memory with increased volume with connection to the processor via a very wide bus.
> Virtual reality in 4K resolution will technically be available on any mid-range computer. In addition, games will be available in 2017 with a wider gamut of colors and higher definition thanks to High Dynamic Range (HDR) technology. It is for them that this gigantic power of video cards is needed in the first place.
Storage drives: new SSD ripe for record
From 2017, fast SSDs and flash drives will be able to store much more information than traditional HDDs. However, a new type of magnetic memory has every chance to bury even a flash.
5 Turbo SSD reads at 10Gbps
Is there a speed limit for SSD technology? 2017 will definitely provide a chance to rethink the status quo. For example, Samsung PM1725a performs over a million I / O operations per second. Seagate is preparing a Nytro XP7200 SSD with read speeds up to 10 Gb / s (1.25 GB / s). Its connection is realized through the PCIe bus with 16 lines, that is, similar to video cards. Until now, the maximum on the PC was four lines, and on the server hardware - eight.
6 Giant SSDs up to 100 TB
Goodbye magnetic disk: storage designers have begun stacking even flash cells in stacks, leading to incredible recording density. Seagate is building an as-yet-untitled 60TB solid state drive in 3.5-inch format. Toshiba is already targeting 100 TB.
7 Large-scale memory pooling
No sooner had flash memory gained momentum than a new successor technology entered the market. It differs in modules on which RAM and storage are merged into one turbo carrier. Such modules withstand much more write processes than SSDs, and transfer data so quickly that they can replace RAM. Intel's 3D XPoint memory, which is currently being tested on Facebook servers, has made a splash. However, 3D XPoint is only ten times faster than SSD so far - not enough for RAM.
> As deliberately, it is the magnetic memory must complete the merger: Everspin's MRAM technology does not use electric currents to store information, but magnetic elements - it was first used in the Aup-AXL-M128 modules for the M.2 connector. (Figure 1) Magnetization can change so quickly that MRAM reaches the speed of main memory. Only the problem of insufficient capacity remained unresolved - 256 Mbit per chip. But already next year, the density should be increased fourfold. In addition, MRAM does not age like flash memory and retains data when the power is turned off.
> In microprocessors Fujitsu plans to start using Nantero's small NRAM (Figure 2). NRAM stores information in carbon nanotubes by changing conductivity. This technology has the same good potential as MRAM.
8 Terabyte SSD for Phones
Speaking of recording density, Samsung houses its terabyte SSD in just two square centimeters - ideal for Ultrabooks, smartphones, and tablets. This is probably possible thanks to the new generation of V-NAND memory cells, when 64 layers of cells are superimposed on each other.
Fast Internet on any networks
Google's new Pixel phone and equipped networks will take internet speeds to unprecedented heights, even on public transport, which already offers free Wi-Fi.
9 New speeds over cable TV
The encrypted abbreviation DOCSIS 3.1 hides a powerful data transfer upgrade over coaxial (television) cable, which the leading providers will start in 2017. In addition to building a provider-side network, customers will also need a new modem such as Arris's SURFboard SB8200. In theory, DOCSIS 3.1 will allow you to download data at speeds up to 10 Gb / s, and upload at a speed of 1 Gb / s, thereby completely burying the fiberglass.
10 Mobile communications breaks through the gigabit border
Leading cellular operators are preparing their networks for LTE Advanced Pro technology. Next summer, they have to overcome the gigabit line. It remains to be hoped that providers will agree on their tariffs and will be able to offer their customers more traffic for the same money.
11 Free Wi-Fi in public transport
By the end of 2016, Mosgortrans and Russian Railways plan to complete equipping all vehicles with new Wi-Fi equipment. Now you can get free Internet access everywhere.
12 Google attacks Apple and Microsoft
With the release of the new Pixel smartphone, the successor to the Nexus devices, Google is demonstrating its new strategy. The pricing policy of this company in the future will be increasingly focused on Apple: depending on the phone and configuration, the cost varies from about 55,000 to 75,000 rubles. Unlike the Nexus line, where Android was at the forefront, here comes a new voice assistant, which Google modestly calls the “Assistant”. The company is going to put it on a par with Apple's Siri, Microsoft's Cortana, and Amazon's Alexa.
> New OS In addition, Google is currently working on a new operating system, codenamed Andromeda, which should combine Chrome OS and Android. This new skin will be installed primarily on 2-in-1 laptops and tablets, which Google has pitted against Microsoft's Surface devices. The first device based on Andromeda should be a laptop-transformer Pixel 3 - the next modification of the Pixel C model. It will hit the market in autumn 2017.
Virtual reality: immersion in the world of illusions
Google is arming, Oculus is retooling, and Intel is taking off - the virtual reality market could change course dramatically in 2017. We will also be immersed in VR worlds using a browser.
13 Google Daydream
Google is bidding farewell to cheap Cardboard glasses with the launch of its Daydream VR platform. The helmet, dubbed "View", is made mostly of plastic and textiles, making it lightweight. It creates the same immersive experience as Samsung's Gear VR rival product. However, this helmet only works with Daydream compatible smartphones such as the Pixel Phone.
14 Wireless helmet
Oculus VR, one of the leaders in the VR headset market, has unveiled a prototype Rift headset called "Santa Cruz" that dispenses with a PC connection. The computing unit is located at the back of the user's head.
15 Intel Project Alloy
The centerpiece of Intel's VR headset prototype is the RealSense camera, which recognizes physical objects in space - for example, the user's hands. The company will open its software and hardware hardware to developers next year.
16 WebVR: virtual reality in the browser
The advantage of VR content in the browser is that there is no need to install additional software in order to view the content using a suitable helmet. Today, many organizations are developing virtual reality for the browser. The technical base is the JavaScript-interface WebVR, which arose as a result of cooperation between the teams of Mozilla and Google Chrome.
> Vehicle configuration in VR At its Connect conference, Oculus unveiled React VR, which will enable web developers to easily create WebVR content in the future. In addition, Oculus unveiled Renault's WebVR app that lets you configure a new car in virtual reality. For viewing WebVR content, Oculus is also developing the Carmel VR browser.
> VR for Microsoft Edge Even Edge is set to be a gateway to virtual reality in the future: Microsoft is already working on WebVR support in the Windows 10 browser. Together with Microsoft's HoloLens, it will revolutionize the way you surf the web.
The world is on the verge of great change
In 2017, we will be controlling our smart homes with our voice, receiving purchases with drones and driving our Tesla on winter holidays, if everything goes as planned.
17 Tesla Model 3
In late 2017, that will come to pass, with the first models of Tesla Motors' affordable Model 3 electric car to be handed over to early pre-order customers, provided battery production at the company's Gigafactory goes according to plan. In the US, the price of these innovative cars of the future middle class will start at $ 35,000. It does not include charges for using fast charging stations.
18 Drone delivery
Approvals have already been received from the relevant air travel agencies, with Google in the US and Amazon in the UK testing autonomous drones for their goods. The commercial launch is planned for 2017.
19 Smart homes from Google and Amazon
With the Echo and Home speakers, Amazon and Google are entering the smart home business. Both devices are voice controlled. The voice assistant will answer.
> Echo With the voice of Amazon's Alexa assistant, it provides information, reads audiobooks, speaks messages, traffic data and weather forecasts, and plays music from Prime and Spotify. In addition, it can be used to control devices from the home network: lamps, switches and thermostats from, for example, Philips (Hue) and Innogy.
> Home(pictured) is a competitor to Google's Echo with much the same capabilities. Difference: Google Assistant acts as an assistant, and there is a link to other products of this corporation, such as Chromecast and Play Music.
PHOTO: manufacturing companies; Martin Mielek / Google, Amazon, Samsung, Google; Deutsche Bahn AG; Dirk Ellenbeck / Vodafone
UDC 37.012.4
K. G. Mitrofanov, O. V. Zaitseva
APPLICATION OF INNOVATIVE COMPUTER TECHNOLOGIES IN THE SPHERE OF EDUCATION: KEY ASPECTS AND TRENDS
The use of information and communication technologies (personal computer, Internet, Internet technology, etc.) in the field of education is assessed ambiguously: there are opinions about both the positive and negative impact of ICT on participants in the educational process. The prerequisites for the introduction of ICT in the field of education, the pros and cons of the process of informatization of education are considered, and an attempt is made to identify the main trends that are formed in education in connection with the use of information and communication technologies.
Key words: information and communication technologies in the education system, innovation, continuing education, Internet, coaching, educational services.
Modern life, the computerization of the sphere of practical activity, which has become widespread in recent years, have demonstrated to our society the required level of communication skills between representatives of different cultures using the global computer network Internet, where it is necessary to exchange written or oral messages without an intermediary, i.e. directly.
This situation is quite correlated with the requirements that are presented today to a participant in modern education, namely, to be competent in various situations. We are talking about the knowledge that can provide such competence not due to memorized subject knowledge, but due to the mastered tools and methods of working with it.
This is especially evident in the practice of communication using the network, in international economic activity. The requirement for competence increases greatly, since the activity of a specialist in this case is directly related to making responsible decisions in a competitive environment as an integral part of the market economy, activity risks, often in a foreign culture. In these situations, the success or failure of the case may be determined by the quality of the agreements.
The gradual entry of Russia into the international economic and political community reveals information-technological and cultural problems as requests (so far implicitly) to the results of education. In these conditions, education faces one of the strategic tasks: it must, along with basic knowledge, ensure entry into a special culture of network interaction and into informatized practical activity.
In addition to the above, there are other prerequisites for the use of information and communication technologies (ICT) in the education system. These include:
The need to build effective systems of lifelong education in Russia;
A steady global trend towards reducing education costs, among other industries;
The growing demand for educational services as a form of leisure and personal competitiveness.
Consideration of these (and other) prerequisites sets the context and targets for the use of ICT in the education system.
However, a systemic and conceptual vision of those trends that "capture" education, and first of all in connection with the introduction of modern information and communication technologies into the sphere of education, seems to be no less important.
“At the turn of the XX and XXI centuries. the traditional education system is faced with new challenges already characteristic of the era of globalization. "
As P. G. Shchedrovitsky notes, “before our very eyes, several technologies for the dissemination of knowledge have been developing over the past 15 years. The simplest ones are mass media and consulting. If education is also considered as such a system for the dissemination and circulation of knowledge (and in the light of what has been said above about the role of knowledge in modern society, it is this function of education that obviously comes to the fore), then we can say that today education is significantly squeezed within its institutional boundaries by means mass media and consulting ".
According to P. G. Shchedrovitsky, modern education should respond to the challenge of these new channels and forms of knowledge dissemination and modernize in accordance with new requirements, “because, by and large, the existing mass communication technologies are more efficient and cheaper than education ... And everything that is expensive will die, because now, when the world has reached the borders of its world economic profitability, no one will pay for what is expensive and ineffective. "
In addition to the media already mentioned, in the context of the impact on the education system, satellite television should be highlighted, which opens up boundless opportunities.
the possibilities of distance learning, and multimedia technologies, which, however, carry the risk of creating the illusion that studying “according to SB-roms” can easily replace going to school (university). It's easy to imagine the reality of such a situation, remembering how video has changed the attitude towards cinema over time.
But, of course, the Internet is becoming one of the most important ICT tools in the era of globalization and postmodernism. This is how N. V. Gromyko characterizes this phenomenon: “The Internet is the quintessence of the postmodern system and lifestyle, this is the space where postmodernism is presented in the most developed and most adequate form: having entered the Internet, you immerse yourself in the essence of the postmodern era in all its philosophical - world outlook and anthropological specifics ".
What is the danger of the Internet for education in terms of its institutional links with philosophy, science and practice? As shows
N.V. Gromyko, in relation to the first two, the danger lies in the erasure of the border between knowledge and information, and in relation to the third, it is that "the Internet is the most technologically advanced and equipped means of keeping people out of the processes of activity", which ultimately , leads to the decline of thinking.
So what is the danger of “too easy” access to information compared to the traditional education system? There is a suspicion that the use of the Internet "frees" the student not only from the need to take an activity position, but also from independent thinking. N. V. Gromyko paints an altogether terrifying picture: “Students, imprisoned in droves at computers, get the opportunity to download information on any issue of interest to them. Moreover, this "downloading" completely cuts out their interest and ability to independent discoveries. Students are becoming more and more erudite, but less and less knowledgeable. With the help of the Internet, they enter a world where everything is already known and where you only need to orientate correctly in order to find the necessary answer. "
However, not everything is so simple. As Immanuel Kant noted, independent thinking is closely related to the ability to judge, the absence of which "is, in fact, what is called stupidity." But isn't the learner's ability to "navigate correctly" in the ocean of information available on the Internet a kind of "hypertext equivalent" to judgment? ..
Taking into account all the above criticism and statements about the negative impact on the education system of both the media and the Internet, and even consulting, one can nevertheless note that in relation to the traditional education system,
sledging influence only exacerbates and exposes its shortcomings, which were already manifested earlier and have an essential character.
Understanding that the main source of profit and a means of generating surplus value in a "post-industrial" society is increasingly knowledge and ways of their practical application, that is, what is usually called innovation is becoming more and more widespread. This understanding is beginning to radically change and even "break" the established ideas about the relationship between education and the economy, about the concept of national security, about the aggregate social product, about property, etc.
The ability to acquire new knowledge, various forms and types of data, necessary information, information, as well as their various interpretations, ways of working with them, and much more is becoming a fundamental characteristic of all participants in the post-industrial economy.
A person during his life is forced to change his profession several times, and this becomes the norm, and not deviant behavior. This is because the development of the human resource is becoming an increasingly urgent process and the subject of ever more intense competition in the modern world.
All this leads to the fact that in educational practices began a massive transition from training "for the workplace" to providing various individualized educational opportunities for all participants in the educational process. Thus, the concept of lifelong education becomes an element of the daily activities of many people, determines the transition from the paradigm of fundamental education and preparation to the paradigm of lifelong education.
A good example is the practice of personal coaching, deployed in the world in recent years (and, by the way, predicted by a number of leading psychologists and philosophers in our country) (comprehensive humanitarian and technological support for the activities of an individual, including his "intellectual" software). If at first the consumers of coaching were the “first” persons, now companies are starting to introduce this practice for all employees or for key categories, and on an ongoing basis.
Many experts note that one of the conditions, and hence the most important prerequisite for the introduction of modern ICT in general education practice, is the emergence of blended finance. Different sources of funding appear only when different consumer demands for education as a practice responsible for the consumption and production of knowledge appear and begin to take shape.
If at the first stage of reforming the education system, parents were such consumers, now they include more and more adult students with requests for themselves, a company, or a corporation.
All these prerequisites, as well as the accumulated potential in solving such issues, have led to the emergence of national, international and even the world market for educational services, programs, approaches, educational systems and means of their use.
Hence follows one of the key requirements for the introduction and further use of ICT in education. These processes should lead users of education into different environments - interregional, national, international, as well as inter-sphere, interprofessional, intercultural, etc. Otherwise, ICTs will not fulfill their function of education in education. More precisely, we are not implementing this new and complicated function.
The development of the Internet and "M" eb-technologies has led to the emergence of new forms of obtaining and perception of knowledge, new forms of education. These forms lead not only to changes in the technical plan, but also to the very methodology and psychology of obtaining and mastering knowledge. The emergence of distance learning, closely related to the achievements of information technology, has provided not only great opportunities for obtaining knowledge at a distance, but also raised a number of questions and problems, without answering which we cannot talk about a civilized transition to advanced forms of education.
An advanced education system has been and is based on the latest advances in science and technology. It is difficult to argue about the effectiveness of the educational process if we use outdated scientific and educational information, obsolete methods of organizing training and technology. The volume of information is increasing every year, information is becoming the most expensive product, and it is an important factor influencing the development of culture, education, science and economy. At present, the transition to electronic forms of presentation, storage, transmission and processing of scientific and educational information has become an objective reality and the most effective means of delivering it to the consumer. Online access via the Internet or the use of databases on SB-carriers increases the efficiency of work hundreds and thousands of times in comparison with traditional paper technology.
Thus, on the one hand, effective means of access to knowledge are needed, on the other hand, the sources of scientific and educational information themselves are needed. Today, knowledge funds are formed mainly in libraries, universities and specialized information centers. Go to
the electronic form of presentation and transmission of information has become an important basis for extracting the necessary knowledge.
In distance education systems, the issues of quality and relevance of knowledge itself should be put on one of the very first places. When creating a content part, we must rely on sources that carry modern trends in the development of a given subject area and which are regularly updated.
The effectiveness of the use of modern ICT in education, especially illustrative teaching aids, the fullest possible implementation of their didactic and educational capabilities, of course, are an important requirement.
The use of forms of visualization, which not only complement verbal information, but also act as carriers of information, should help to increase the mental activity of students.
Visual and conditional graphic means of visualization (tables, diagrams, drawings, graphs, diagrams, reproductions of paintings, photographs of scientists, painting, audiovisual means, etc.) are constituent elements of printed and electronic educational materials and therefore play an essential role in development of intellectual, cognitive activity of students.
It is difficult to imagine a child under the age of 14 who does not know what a computer, the Internet or just a cell phone is.
The generation of today's schoolchildren mastered the computer and new technologies easily and without thinking how any child masters the world around him. At the same time, it has been a question of informatization of the learning process for a long time. What is the matter here?
As already mentioned, the modern generation of 1014-year-old schoolchildren mastered the computer spontaneously. There was no specially organized training on its use at school. A computer connected to the Internet does not just contain more information and entertainment than any school textbook or teacher, but can demonstrate this information in a convenient form. The basic characteristic of any computer is its "personality", the ability to customize it "for yourself", its own characteristics and pace. The traditional school does not provide such an opportunity.
Another side of the process of informatization and ubiquitous computerization is the increasing discrepancy between the requirements of the school and real life. The Latin phrase “Non scholae, sed vitae discimus” - “We study not for school, but for life” comes to mind. This is a rule that is sometimes forgotten within the walls of the school. It is impossible not to take into account the fact that modern man, for example, does not even
thinks about the beauty of his own handwriting - the computer does not display this feature on the screen, thinks little about the correct spelling of words - a special program will reveal all the mistakes made.
It is obvious for the authors that in the conditions of the informational stage of the development of society, it is the education system, as a branch of the production of knowledge and scientific schools, that is a priority branch. Moreover, simply “keeping up with the times” is not enough for education. It is necessary to be ahead, to be one step ahead, only then graduates of schools and universities can meet the requirements of society in all respects.
Already due to the fact that education is different for different people and performs different functions for them: for some it is associated with work, for others - with the worldview, for others - with
By providing some base for further life, etc., ICT will also be used in different ways. Once it will be a tool for work, the second time it will be an auxiliary means of building one's educational trajectory, the third time it will be the way to determine one's own identity and place in life, the fourth time - to gain access to various resources, etc.
All these moments of what is happening bring to life, with even greater necessity than before, the question of learning as an activity. Otherwise, educational aids, such as ICTs, can very quickly - and this process, especially well-financed by software manufacturers, is already underway - turn first into a subject of study, and then into a task of teaching and education.
Bibliography
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4. Krasnova GA, Belyaev MI, Solovov AV Technologies for creating electronic teaching aids. Moscow: MGIU, 2001.224 p.
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9. Bendova LV Pedagogical activity of a tutor in the network of open distance professional education: author. dis. ... Cand. ped. sciences. M., 2006.
Mitrofanov K.G., Candidate of Pedagogical Sciences, Head of the Center for Methodology and Design of Standards and
assessing the quality of education.
St. Chernyakhovsky, 9, Moscow, Moscow region, Russia, 125319.
Email: [email protected]
O. V. Zaitseva, Senior Researcher.
Federal Institute for the Development of Education.
125319, Moscow, st. Chernyakhovsky, 9, Moscow, Moscow region, Russia, 125319.
Email: [email protected]
Received by the editors 16.10.2009
K. G. Mitrofanov, O. V. Zaitseva INNOVATIVE COMPUTER TECHNOLOGIES IN EDUCATION: BASIC ASPECTS AND TRENDS
Implementation of Information and Communication Technologies (personal computer, Internet, Web-technologies etc) in the education sphere is a complex issue. There are different opinions which describe both positive and negative ICT influences on participants of the educational process. ICT implementation background in the sphere of education, advantages and shortcomings of the informatization process are considered in the article. Also article presents the attempt to identify basic trends emerging in education as a result from Information and Communication Technologies implementation.
Key words: information and communication technologies in education, innovations, continuous education, Internet, coaching, educational services.
Mitrofanov K. G.
Email: [email protected]
Federal Institute of Educational Development.
Ul. Chernyakhovskogo, 9, Moskva, Moskovskaya oblast, Russia, 125319.
Especially for the RIA Science section >>
Steven Perlberg
The World Economic Forum, known for its annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland, has released a new report that outlines the main technology trends this year.
“Technology has become perhaps the greatest agent of change in the world today,” writes entrepreneur Noubar Afeyan. "It never goes without risk, but positive technological breakthroughs promise to provide innovative solutions to the world's most pressing problems of today, from scarcity of resources to global environmental changes."
“By highlighting the most important technological advances, the Council aims to raise awareness of their potential and help close gaps in investment, regulation and public perception,” he notes.
Below is a summary of the latest technologies to look out for this year, from wearable electronics to brain-to-computer interfaces.
1. Body-adapted wearable electronics
New York Police Test Google Glass Smart GlassesPolice officers have several devices at their disposal to test how this technique can be used to solve everyday problems. According to media reports, police can use Google Glass for facial recognition, retrieving data from archives, recording videos and preparing reports.“These virtually invisible devices include earbuds that track heart rate, underwear sensors that monitor posture, temporary tattoos that track vital organs, and tactile soles that show GPS directions by vibrating your feet.
This technique has a wide variety of applications: tactile soles are proposed to be used as a guide for the blind, and Google Glass is already worn by oncologists, as this device helps them with operations, showing medical data and other visual information using voice commands.
2. Nanostructured graphite composite materials
Air pollutants from the rapidly growing car fleet are a growing concern for environmentalists. Therefore, improving the operating efficiency of transport is a promising avenue for reducing the overall impact of pollution.
New methods for nanostructuring carbon fiber for the latest composite materials demonstrate the ability to reduce vehicle weight by 10% or more. A light car needs less fuel, which will increase the efficiency of transporting people and goods and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. ”
3. Extraction of metals in seawater concentrate during desalination
Fresh water supplies continue to decline, and therefore one of the solutions to the problem has become the desalination of seawater. But desalination has serious drawbacks. It requires a lot of energy and also produces waste in the form of concentrated salt water, which, when returned to the sea, has a serious negative impact on marine life.
Perhaps the most promising solution to this problem may be a new attitude towards this concentrate, if you look at it not as a production waste, but as a raw material source of very valuable substances. Among them are lithium, magnesium and uranium, as well as ordinary soda, calcium and potassium compounds.
4. Storage of electricity on an industrial scale
There are indications that many new technologies will help us get close to solving a number of problems. Some of them, say, flow batteries, in the future will be able to store chemical energy in liquid form and in large quantities, just as we store coal and gas.
Various solid batteries will also allow you to store quite large amounts of energy in fairly cheap and affordable materials. Recently invented high-capacity graphene capacitors make it possible to charge and discharge batteries very quickly, completing many tens of thousands of cycles. There are other options, such as harnessing the potential of kinetic energy in large flywheels and storing compressed air underground.
5. Nanowire lithium-ion batteries
2014: which scientific ideas should be retiredFamous scientists have compiled their own list of popular scientific ideas that have lost their relevance in the light of the latest research and modern views.These new generation batteries are able to fully charge faster and generate 30-40% more electricity than today's lithium-ion batteries. This will help transform the electric vehicle market and enable solar energy storage at home. Silicon-anode batteries will be used in smartphones for the first time in the next two years.
6. Display without screen
In this area, significant and rapid progress was made in 2013. It looks like there are major breakthroughs in the near future in the dimensionally variable application of no-screen displays. Various companies are making great strides in this area. We are talking about a virtual reality headset, bionic contact lenses, the development of mobile phones for the elderly and visually impaired people, as well as video holograms that do not require glasses or moving parts.
7. Medicines for human intestinal microflora
Nowadays, much attention is paid to the intestinal microflora and its role in the occurrence of various diseases - from infections and obesity to diabetes and inflammation of the digestive tract.
It became clear that antibiotic treatment leads to the destruction of the intestinal flora and causes complications such as infections from the bacteria Clostridium difficile. And in some cases, complications can even threaten a person's life. On the other hand, clinical studies are now underway on a group of microbes found in healthy intestines, which will help create a new generation of drugs in order to improve the process of treating human intestinal microflora.
8. Medicines based on RNA
Advances in the study of ribonucleic acids (RNA) and synthesis technologies in a living organism make it possible to create a new generation of drugs based on RNA. These drugs will be able to dilute the naturally occurring protein present in excess and allow the body to naturally produce optimized drug-based proteins. In collaboration with large pharmaceutical companies and research centers, a number of private firms have been set up to develop RNA-based drugs and treatments.
9. Know yourself (predictive analytics)
Smartphones contain a huge amount of information about the activities of people, including those they know (contact lists, social networking applications), with whom they communicate (call logging, registering text messages, email), where they go (GPS, Wi-Fi georeferenced photos) and what they do (applications we use, load data).
Using this information, as well as special algorithms for machine understanding, it is possible to build detailed predictive models about people and their behavior. This will assist in urban planning work, in prescribing individual medicines, in considering future needs, and in medical diagnostics.
10. Brain-computer interfaces
The ability to control a computer solely by the power of the mind is closer to reality than you think. Brain-to-computer interfaces, in which the computer reads and interprets signals directly from the brain, are already undergoing clinical trials and showing good results. They will allow people with quadriplegia (paralysis of the arms and legs), isolation syndrome and those who have suffered a stroke to get around in their wheelchair and even drink coffee from a cup while controlling a robotic arm using brain waves. In addition, brain implants help partially restore vision for those who have lost it.
